Repositorio
Institucional

Martinez-Retureta, Rebeca

Aguayo, Mauricio

Abreu, Norberto J.

Urrutia, Roberto

Echeverria, Cristian

Lagos, Octavio

Rodriguez-Lopez, Lien

Duran-Llacer, Iongel

Barra, Ricardo O.

Influence of Climate and Land Cover/Use Change on Water Balance: An Approach to Individual and Combined Effects

MDPI

WATER

en

Land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change (CC) affect water resource availability as they alter important hydrological processes. Mentioned factors modify the magnitude of surface runoff, groundwater recharge, and river flow among other parameters. In the present work, changes that occurred in the recent decades at the Quino and Muco river watersheds in the south-central zone of Chile were evaluated to predict future cover/use changes considering a forest expansion scenario according to Chilean regulations. In this way an expansion by 42.3 km(2) and 52.7 km(2) at Quino and Muco watersheds, respectively, was predicted, reaching a watersheds' occupation of 35.4% and 22.3% in 2051. Additionally, the local climatic model RegCM4-MPI-ESM-MR was used considering periods from 2020-2049 and 2050-2079, under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Finally, the SWAT model was applied to assess the hydrological response of both watersheds facing the considered forcing factors. Five scenarios were determined to evaluate the LUCC and CC individual and combined effects. The results depict a higher sensitivity of the watersheds to CC impacts, where an increase of evapotranspiration, with a lessening of percolation, surface flow, lateral flow, and groundwater flow, triggered a water yield (WYLD) decrease in all predicted scenarios. However, when both global changes act synergistically, the WYLD decreases considerably with reductions of 109.8 mm and 123.3 mm at the Quino and Muco watersheds, respectively, in the most extreme simulated scenario. This water scarcity context highlights the necessity to promote land use management strategies to counteract the imminent effects of CC in the watersheds.

artículo original

Rebeca Martinez-Retureta and the authors are grateful to the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) of the Chilean Government for the funding provided by the National Doctorate Scholarship 2016 Grant N degrees 21160323, the CRHIAM Project (ANID/FONDAP/15130015) and Project ANID/Postdoctoral FONDECYT/3220382. Further, for the support provided by the University of Concepcion and ECOLAB laboratory UMR 5262. Authors especially thank the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)<SUP>2</SUP> for providing the meteorological data.

Rebeca Martínez-Retureta y los autores agradecen a la Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID) del Gobierno de Chile por el financiamiento brindado por la Beca Nacional de Doctorado 2016 Beca N grados 21160323, el Proyecto CRHIAM (ANID/FONDAP/15130015) y Proyecto ANID/Postdoctorado FONDECYT/3220382. Además, por el apoyo brindado por la Universidad de Concepción y el laboratorio ECOLAB UMR 5262. Los autores agradecen especialmente al Centro de Investigación sobre el Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)<SUP>2</SUP> por proporcionar los datos meteorológicos.

10.3390/w14152304

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climate change

hydrological cycle

land cover/use change

SWAT model

STREAMFLOW RESPONSES

RIVER-BASIN

IMPACTS

CHILE

Ciencias Ambientales

Recursos hídricos

cambio climático

ciclo hidrológico

cambio de uso/cobertura del suelo

modelo SWAT

RESPUESTAS AL FLUJO DE FLUJO

CUENCA DEL RÍO

IMPACTOS

CHILE

Oceanografía, Hidrología y Recursos del Agua

Climatología

Silvicultura

Influence of Climate and Land Cover/Use Change on Water Balance: An Approach to Individual and Combined Effects

artículo original

version publicada

CC BY 4.0

CC BY 4.0

acceso abierto

acceso abierto

ANID 21160323

ANID-FONDAP 15130015

ANID-FONDECYT 3220382

UdeC UMR 5262

ANID FONDAP 15130015

ANID FONDECYT 3220382

WOS:000839343500001