Repositorio
Institucional

Kreibich, Heidi

Van Loon, Anne F.

Schroeter, Kai

Ward, Philip J.

Mazzoleni, Maurizio

Sairam, Nivedita

Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho

Agafonova, Svetlana

AghaKouchak, Amir

Aksoy, Hafzullah

Alvarez-Garreton, Camila

Aznar, Blanca

Balkhi, Laila

Barendrecht, Marlies H.

Biancamaria, Sylvain

Bos-Burgering, Liduin

Bradley, Chris

Budiyono, Yus

Buytaert, Wouter

Capewell, Lucinda

Carlson, Hayley

Cavus, Yonca

Couasnon, Anais

Coxon, Gemma

Daliakopoulos, Ioannis

de Ruiter, Marleen C.

Delus, Claire

Erfurt, Mathilde

Esposito, Giuseppe

Francois, Didier

Frappart, Frederic

Freer, Jim

Frolova, Natalia

Gain, Animesh K.

Grillakis, Manolis

Grima, Jordi Oriol

Guzman, Diego A.

Huning, Laurie S.

Ionita, Monica

Kharlamov, Maxim

Khoi, Dao Nguyen

Kieboom, Natalie

Kireeva, Maria

Koutroulis, Aristeidis

Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo

Li, Hong-Yi

LLasat, Maria Carmen

Macdonald, David

Mard, Johanna

Mathew-Richards, Hannah

McKenzie, Andrew

Mejia, Alfonso

Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario

Mens, Marjolein

Mobini, Shifteh

Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna

Nagavciuc, Viorica

Thanh Ngo-Duc

Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh

Pham Thi Thao Nhi

Petrucci, Olga

Hong Quan Nguyen

Quintana-Segui, Pere

Razavi, Saman

Ridolfi, Elena

Riegel, Jannik

Sadik, Md Shibly

Savelli, Elisa

Sazonov, Alexey

Sharma, Sanjib

Sorensen, Johanna

Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello

Stahl, Kerstin

Steinhausen, Max

Stoelzle, Michael

Szalinska, Wiwiana

Tang, Qiuhong

Tian, Fuqiang

Tokarczyk, Tamara

Tovar, Carolina

Tran, Thi Van Thu

Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J.

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

Vorogushyn, Sergiy

Wagener, Thorsten

Wang, Yueling

Wendt, Doris E.

Wickham, Elliot

Yang, Long

Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio

Bloschl, Gunter

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

NATURE PORTFOLIO

NATURE

en

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally(1,2), yet their impacts are still increasing(3). An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data(4,5). On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change(3).

artículo original

The presented work was developed by the Panta Rhei Working Groups 'Changes in flood risk' and 'Drought in the Anthropocene' within the framework of the Panta Rhei Research Initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. We thank the Barcelona Cicle de l'Aigua S.A., Barcelona City Council, Environment Agency (United Kingdom), Lansforsakringar Skane, Steering Centre for Urban Flood Control Programme in HCMC (Vietnam), VA SYD and the West Berkshire Council (United Kingdom) for data. The work was partly undertaken under the framework of the following projects: Alexander v on Humboldt Foundation Professorship endowed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), British Geological Survey's Groundwater Resources Topic (core science funding), C3-RiskMed (no. PID2020-113638RB-C22), financed by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain, Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (no. ANID/FONDAP/15110009), CNES, through the TOSCA GRANT SWHYM, DECIDER (BMBF, no. 01LZ1703G), Deltares research programme on water resources, Dutch Research Council VIDI grant (no. 016.161.324), FLOOD (no. BMBF 01LP1903E), as part of the ClimXtreme Research Network. Funding was provided by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate, Global Water Futures programme of University of Saskatchewan, GlobalHydroPressure (Water JPI), HUMID project (no. CGL2017-85687-R, AEI/FEDER, UE), HydroSocialExtremes (ERC Consolidator Grant no. 771678), MYRIAD-EU (European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003276), PerfectSTORM (no. ERC2020-StG 948601), Project EFA210/16 PIRAGUA, co-founded by ERDF through the POCTEFA 2014-2020 programme of the European Union, Research project nos. ANID/FSEQ210001 and ANID/NSFC190018, funded by the National Research and Development Agency of Chile, SECurITY (Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 787419), SPATE (FWF project I 4776-N, DFG research group FOR 2416), the UK Natural Environment Research Council-funded project Land Management in Lowland Catchments for Integrated Flood Risk Reduction (LANDWISE, grant no. NE/R004668/1), UK NERC grant no. NE/S013210/1 (RAHU) (W.B.), Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development under grant no. 105.06-2019.20., and Vietnam National University-HCMC under grant no. C2018-48-01. D.M. and A. McKenzie publish with the permission of the Director, British Geological Survey. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not the organizations for which they work.

El trabajo presentado fue desarrollado por los Grupos de Trabajo de Panta Rhei 'Cambios en el riesgo de inundaciones' y 'Sequía en el Antropoceno' en el marco de la Iniciativa de Investigación Panta Rhei de la Asociación Internacional de Ciencias Hidrológicas. Agradecemos a Barcelona Cicle de l'Aigua S.A., Ayuntamiento de Barcelona, ​​Agencia de Medio Ambiente (Reino Unido), Lansforsakringar Skane, Steering Center for Urban Flood Control Program in HCMC (Vietnam), VA SYD y West Berkshire Council (Reino Unido) por datos. El trabajo se llevó a cabo en parte en el marco de los siguientes proyectos: Cátedra de la Fundación Alexander v on Humboldt, dotada por el Ministerio Federal de Educación e Investigación de Alemania (BMBF), el tema de recursos de aguas subterráneas del Servicio Geológico Británico (financiación científica básica), C3-RiskMed (nº PID2020-113638RB-C22), financiado por el Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, Centro de Investigaciones sobre el Clima y la Resiliencia (n° ANID/FONDAP/15110009), CNES, a través de la BECA TOSCA SWHYM, DECISOR (BMBF, no. 01LZ1703G), Programa de investigación Deltares sobre recursos hídricos, Beca VIDI del Consejo Holandés de Investigación (nº 016.161.324), FLOOD (nº BMBF 01LP1903E), como parte de la Red de Investigación ClimXtreme. La financiación fue proporcionada por el Ministerio holandés de Asuntos Económicos y Clima, Programa Global Water Futures de la Universidad de Saskatchewan, GlobalHydroPressure (Agua JPI), proyecto HUMID (nº CGL2017-85687-R, AEI/FEDER, UE), HydroSocialExtremes (Subvención de consolidación de ERC n.º 771678), MYRIAD-EU (programa de investigación e innovación Horizonte 2020 de la Unión Europea en virtud del acuerdo de subvención nº 101003276), PerfectSTORM (nº ERC2020-StG 948601), Proyecto EFA210/16 PIRAGUA, cofundado por FEDER a través del programa POCTEFA 2014-2020 de la Unión Europea, Proyectos de investigación núms. ANID/FSEQ210001 y ANID/NSFC190018, financiado por la Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo de Chile, SEGURIDAD (acuerdo de subvención Marie Sklodowska-Curie nº 787419), SPATE (proyecto FWF I 4776-N, grupo de investigación DFG FOR 2416), el proyecto Gestión de tierras en cuencas de tierras bajas para la reducción integrada del riesgo de inundaciones, financiado por el Consejo de Investigación del Medio Ambiente Natural del Reino Unido (LANDWISE, subvención n.º NE/R004668/1), Subvención NERC del Reino Unido no. NE/S013210/1 (RAHU) (W.B.), Fundación Nacional de Vietnam para el Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico bajo la subvención no. 105.06-2019.20., y la Universidad Nacional de Vietnam-HCMC con la subvención no. C2018-48-01. DM y A. McKenzie publican con el permiso del Director del Servicio Geológico Británico. Las opiniones expresadas en este artículo son las de los autores y no las de las organizaciones para las que trabajan.

10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

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artículo original

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CC BY 4.0

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ANID-FONDAP 15110009

MICINN IF/00001/2015

ANID-FONDECYT 3210101

FCT 3210101

ANID-FONDECYT RYC-201 7 22032

ANID/NSFC190018

MICINN PID2019-106908RA-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033

BMBF PID2020-113638RB-C22

BMBF 01LP1903E

BMBF 01LZ1703G

NWO 016.161.324

VNUHCMC C2018-48-01

NAFOSTED 105.06-2019.20

UE MYRYAD-EU 101003276

ANID FONDAP 15110009

ANID FONDECYT 3210101

ANID FONDECYT RYC-201 7 22032

WOS:000835655400012