Repositorio
Institucional

Fustos-Toribio, Ivo

Manque-Roa, Nataly

Vasquez Antipan, Daniel

Hermosilla Sotomayor, Mauricio

Letelier Gonzalez, Viviana

Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH

NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES

en

Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) are an issue in the southern Andes nowadays. RILs cause loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. Rainfall-induced landslide early warning systems (RILEWSs) can reduce and mitigate economic and social damages related to RIL events. The southern Andes do not have an operational-scale RILEWS yet. In this contribution, we present a pre-operational RILEWS based on the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model and geomorphological features coupled to logistic models in the southern Andes. The models have been forced using precipitation simulations. We correct the precipitation derived from WRF using 12 weather stations through a bias correction approach. The models were trained using 57 well-characterized RILs and validated by ROC analysis. We show that WRF has strong limitations in representing the spatial variability in the precipitation. Therefore, accurate precipitation needs a bias correction in the study zone. We used accurate precipitation simulation and slope, demonstrating a high predicting capacity (area under the curve, AUC, of 0.80). We conclude that our proposal could be suitable at an operational level under determined conditions. A reliable RIL database and operational weather networks that allow real-time correction of the mesoscale model in the implemented zone are needed. The RILEWSs could become a support to decision-makers during extreme-precipitation events related to climate change in the south of the Andes.

artículo original

We acknowledge Direccion de Investigacion of the University of La Frontera for their English editing support. The study was supported by Fondecyt 11180500 (logistic models development) and PII180007 (validation phase) of the Chilean government.

Agradecemos a la Dirección de Investigación de la Universidad de La Frontera por su apoyo en la edición en inglés. El estudio contó con el apoyo del Fondecyt 11180500 (desarrollo de modelos logísticos) y PII180007 (fase de validación) del gobierno de Chile.

10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022

PDF

FLOWS-TRIGGERING RAINFALL

BIAS CORRECTION

DEBRIS

IDENTIFICATION

THRESHOLDS

UNCERTAINTY

PRECIPITATION

PERFORMANCE

SIMULATION

IMPACT

Geociencias

Multidisciplinaria

Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas

Recursos hídricos

LLUVIA QUE DESENCADENAN FLUJOS

CORRECCIÓN DE SESGO

ESCOMBROS

IDENTIFICACIÓN

UMBRALES

INCERTIBILIDAD

PRECIPITACIÓN

RENDIMIENTO

SIMULACIÓN

IMPACTO

Oceanografía, Hidrología y Recursos del Agua

Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas

Geociencias

Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes

2169

2183

artículo original

version publicada

CC BY 4.0

CC BY 4.0

acceso abierto

acceso abierto

ANID PII180007

ANID-FONDECYT 11180500

ANID FONDECYT 11180500

WOS:000817098000001