Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes
| Primer Autor |
Fustos-Toribio, Ivo
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| Co-autores |
Manque-Roa, Nataly
Vasquez Antipan, Daniel
Hermosilla Sotomayor, Mauricio
Letelier Gonzalez, Viviana
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| Título |
Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes
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| Editorial |
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
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| Revista |
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
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| Lenguaje |
en
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| Resumen |
Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) are an issue in the southern Andes nowadays. RILs cause loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. Rainfall-induced landslide early warning systems (RILEWSs) can reduce and mitigate economic and social damages related to RIL events. The southern Andes do not have an operational-scale RILEWS yet. In this contribution, we present a pre-operational RILEWS based on the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model and geomorphological features coupled to logistic models in the southern Andes. The models have been forced using precipitation simulations. We correct the precipitation derived from WRF using 12 weather stations through a bias correction approach. The models were trained using 57 well-characterized RILs and validated by ROC analysis. We show that WRF has strong limitations in representing the spatial variability in the precipitation. Therefore, accurate precipitation needs a bias correction in the study zone. We used accurate precipitation simulation and slope, demonstrating a high predicting capacity (area under the curve, AUC, of 0.80). We conclude that our proposal could be suitable at an operational level under determined conditions. A reliable RIL database and operational weather networks that allow real-time correction of the mesoscale model in the implemented zone are needed. The RILEWSs could become a support to decision-makers during extreme-precipitation events related to climate change in the south of the Andes.
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| Tipo de Recurso |
artículo original
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| Description |
We acknowledge Direccion de Investigacion of the University of La Frontera for their English editing support. The study was supported by Fondecyt 11180500 (logistic models development) and PII180007 (validation phase) of the Chilean government.
Agradecemos a la Dirección de Investigación de la Universidad de La Frontera por su apoyo en la edición en inglés. El estudio contó con el apoyo del Fondecyt 11180500 (desarrollo de modelos logísticos) y PII180007 (fase de validación) del gobierno de Chile.
|
| doi |
10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022
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| Formato Recurso |
PDF
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| Palabras Claves |
FLOWS-TRIGGERING RAINFALL
BIAS CORRECTION
DEBRIS
IDENTIFICATION
THRESHOLDS
UNCERTAINTY
PRECIPITATION
PERFORMANCE
SIMULATION
IMPACT
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| Ubicación del archivo | |
| Categoría OCDE |
Geociencias
Multidisciplinaria
Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
Recursos hídricos
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| Materias |
LLUVIA QUE DESENCADENAN FLUJOS
CORRECCIÓN DE SESGO
ESCOMBROS
IDENTIFICACIÓN
UMBRALES
INCERTIBILIDAD
PRECIPITACIÓN
RENDIMIENTO
SIMULACIÓN
IMPACTO
|
| Título de la cita (Recomendado-único) |
Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes
|
| Página de inicio (Recomendado-único) |
2169
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| Página final (Recomendado-único) |
2183
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| Identificador del recurso (Mandatado-único) |
artículo original
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| Versión del recurso (Recomendado-único) |
version publicada
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| License |
CC BY 4.0
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| Condición de la licencia (Recomendado-repetible) |
CC BY 4.0
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| Derechos de acceso |
acceso abierto
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| Access Rights |
acceso abierto
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| Referencia del Financiador (Mandatado si es aplicable-repetible) |
ANID PII180007
ANID-FONDECYT 11180500
ANID FONDECYT 11180500
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| Id de Web of Science |
WOS:000817098000001
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cienciaabierta.ufro.cl
ciencia.abierta@ufrontera.cl