Repositorio
Institucional

Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo

Boekstegers, Felix

Scherer, Dominique

Barahona Ponce, Carol

Marcelain, Katherine

Garate-Calderon, Valentina

Waldenberger, Melanie

Morales, Erik

Rojas, Armando

Munoz, Cesar

Retamales, Javier

de Toro, Gonzalo

Barajas, Olga

Rivera, Maria Teresa

Cortes, Analia

Loader, Denisse

Saavedra, Javiera

Gutierrez, Lorena

Ortega, Alejandro

Bertran, Maria Enriqueta

Bartolotti, Leonardo

Gabler, Fernando

Campos, Monica

Alvarado, Juan

Moisan, Fabricio

Spencer, Loreto

Nervi, Bruno

Carvajal-Hausdorf, Daniel

Losada, Hector

Almau, Mauricio

Fernandez, Plinio

Olloquequi, Jordi

Fuentes-Guajardo, Macarena

Gonzalez-Jose, Rolando

Bortolini, Maria Catira

Acuna-Alonzo, Victor

Gallo, Carla

Linares, Andres Ruiz

Rothhammer, Francisco

Development and internal validation of a multifactorial risk prediction model for gallbladder cancer in a high-incidence country

WILEY

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER

en

Since 2006, Chile has been implementing a gallbladder cancer (GBC) prevention program based on prophylactic cholecystectomy for gallstone patients aged 35 to 49 years. The effectiveness of this prevention program has not yet been comprehensively evaluated. We conducted a retrospective study of 473 Chilean GBC patients and 2137 population-based controls to develop and internally validate three GBC risk prediction models. The Baseline Model accounted for gallstones while adjusting for sex and birth year. Enhanced Model I also included the non-genetic risk factors: body mass index, educational level, Mapuche surnames, number of children and family history of GBC. Enhanced Model II further included Mapuche ancestry and the genotype for rs17209837. Multiple Cox regression was applied to assess the predictive performance, quantified by the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PRC) and the number of cholecystectomies needed (NCN) to prevent one case of GBC at age 70 years. The AUC-PRC for the Baseline Model (0.44%, 95%CI 0.42-0.46) increased by 0.22 (95%CI 0.15-0.29) when non-genetic factors were included, and by 0.25 (95%CI 0.20-0.30) when incorporating non-genetic and genetic factors. The overall NCN for Chileans with gallstones (115, 95%CI 104-131) decreased to 92 (95%CI 60-128) for Chileans with a higher risk than the median according to Enhanced Model I, and to 80 (95%CI 59-110) according to Enhanced Model II. In conclusion, age, sex and gallstones are strong risk factors for GBC, but consideration of other non-genetic factors and individual genotype data improves risk prediction and may optimize allocation of financial resources and surgical capacity.

2023

artículo original

10.1002/ijc.34607

PDF

cholecystectomy

gallbladder cancer

gallstones

native American ancestry

non-genetic and genetic risk factors

risk prediction

Oncología

colecistectomía

cáncer de vesícula biliar

cálculos biliares

ascendencia nativa americana

factores de riesgo genéticos y no genéticos

predicción de riesgo

1151.0

1161

artículo original

versión publicada

CC BY-NC 4.0

CC BY-NC 4.0

acceso abierto

acceso abierto

WOS:001000315800001

0020-7136

Verde# hibrida

Oncología

BMBF 01DN15021

UE H2020 825741

DFG 424112940, LO 1928/11-1

MWK INST 35/1503-1 FUGG

MWK INST 35/1314-1