Development and internal validation of a multifactorial risk prediction model for gallbladder cancer in a high-incidence country
| Primer Autor |
Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo
|
| Co-autores |
Boekstegers, Felix
Scherer, Dominique
Barahona Ponce, Carol
Marcelain, Katherine
Garate-Calderon, Valentina
Waldenberger, Melanie
Morales, Erik
Rojas, Armando
Munoz, Cesar
Retamales, Javier
de Toro, Gonzalo
Barajas, Olga
Rivera, Maria Teresa
Cortes, Analia
Loader, Denisse
Saavedra, Javiera
Gutierrez, Lorena
Ortega, Alejandro
Bertran, Maria Enriqueta
Bartolotti, Leonardo
Gabler, Fernando
Campos, Monica
Alvarado, Juan
Moisan, Fabricio
Spencer, Loreto
Nervi, Bruno
Carvajal-Hausdorf, Daniel
Losada, Hector
Almau, Mauricio
Fernandez, Plinio
Olloquequi, Jordi
Fuentes-Guajardo, Macarena
Gonzalez-Jose, Rolando
Bortolini, Maria Catira
Acuna-Alonzo, Victor
Gallo, Carla
Linares, Andres Ruiz
Rothhammer, Francisco
|
| Título |
Development and internal validation of a multifactorial risk prediction model for gallbladder cancer in a high-incidence country
|
| Editorial |
WILEY
|
| Revista |
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER
|
| Lenguaje |
en
|
| Resumen |
Since 2006, Chile has been implementing a gallbladder cancer (GBC) prevention program based on prophylactic cholecystectomy for gallstone patients aged 35 to 49 years. The effectiveness of this prevention program has not yet been comprehensively evaluated. We conducted a retrospective study of 473 Chilean GBC patients and 2137 population-based controls to develop and internally validate three GBC risk prediction models. The Baseline Model accounted for gallstones while adjusting for sex and birth year. Enhanced Model I also included the non-genetic risk factors: body mass index, educational level, Mapuche surnames, number of children and family history of GBC. Enhanced Model II further included Mapuche ancestry and the genotype for rs17209837. Multiple Cox regression was applied to assess the predictive performance, quantified by the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PRC) and the number of cholecystectomies needed (NCN) to prevent one case of GBC at age 70 years. The AUC-PRC for the Baseline Model (0.44%, 95%CI 0.42-0.46) increased by 0.22 (95%CI 0.15-0.29) when non-genetic factors were included, and by 0.25 (95%CI 0.20-0.30) when incorporating non-genetic and genetic factors. The overall NCN for Chileans with gallstones (115, 95%CI 104-131) decreased to 92 (95%CI 60-128) for Chileans with a higher risk than the median according to Enhanced Model I, and to 80 (95%CI 59-110) according to Enhanced Model II. In conclusion, age, sex and gallstones are strong risk factors for GBC, but consideration of other non-genetic factors and individual genotype data improves risk prediction and may optimize allocation of financial resources and surgical capacity.
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| Fecha Publicación |
2023
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| Tipo de Recurso |
artículo original
|
| doi |
10.1002/ijc.34607
|
| Formato Recurso |
PDF
|
| Palabras Claves |
cholecystectomy
gallbladder cancer
gallstones
native American ancestry
non-genetic and genetic risk factors
risk prediction
|
| Ubicación del archivo | |
| Categoría OCDE |
Oncología
|
| Materias |
colecistectomía
cáncer de vesícula biliar
cálculos biliares
ascendencia nativa americana
factores de riesgo genéticos y no genéticos
predicción de riesgo
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| Página de inicio (Recomendado-único) |
1151.0
|
| Página final (Recomendado-único) |
1161
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| Identificador del recurso (Mandatado-único) |
artículo original
|
| Versión del recurso (Recomendado-único) |
versión publicada
|
| License |
CC BY-NC 4.0
|
| Condición de la licencia (Recomendado-repetible) |
CC BY-NC 4.0
|
| Derechos de acceso |
acceso abierto
|
| Access Rights |
acceso abierto
|
| Id de Web of Science |
WOS:001000315800001
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| ISSN |
0020-7136
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| Tipo de ruta |
Verde# hibrida
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| Categoría WOS |
Oncología
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| Referencia del Financiador (Mandatado si es aplicable-repetible) |
BMBF 01DN15021
UE H2020 825741
DFG 424112940, LO 1928/11-1
MWK INST 35/1503-1 FUGG
MWK INST 35/1314-1
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