Repositorio
Institucional

Fustos Toribio, Ivo J.

Maragano-Carmona, Gonzalo

Descote, Pierre-Yves

Robledo, Luis F.

Villalobos, Diego

Gatica, Gustavo

Rainfall-Induced Landslide Assessment under Different Precipitation Thresholds Using Remote Sensing Data: A Central Andes Case

MDPI

WATER

en

The determination of susceptibility to rainfall-induced landslides is crucial in developing a robust Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS). With the potential uncertainty of susceptibility changes in mountain environments due to different precipitation thresholds related to climate change, it becomes important to evaluate these changes. In this study, we employed a machine learning approach (logistic models) to assess susceptibility changes to landslides in the Central Andes. We integrated geomorphological features such as slope and slope curvature, and precipitation data on different days before the landslide. We then split the data into a calibration and validation database in a 50/50% ratio, respectively. The results showed an area under the curve (AUC) performance of over 0.790, indicating the model's capacity to represent prone-landslide changes based on geomorphological and precipitation antecedents. We further evaluated susceptibility changes using different precipitation scenarios by integrating Intensity/Duration/Frequency (IDF) products based on CHIRPS data. We concluded that this methodology could be implemented as a Rainfall-Induced Landslides Early Warning System (RILEWS) to forecast RIL occurrence zones and constrain precipitation thresholds. Our study estimates that half of the basin area in the study zone showed a 59% landslide probability for a return of two years at four hours. Given the extent and high population in the area, authorities must increase monitoring over unstable slopes or generate landslide early warning at an operational scale to improve risk management. We encourage decision-makers to focus on better understanding and analysing short-duration extreme events, and future urbanization and public infrastructure designs must consider RIL impact.

2023

artículo original

10.3390/w15142514

PDF

logistic models

landslide susceptibility

Central Andes

rainfall-induced landslide

susceptibility temporal variations

Ciencias ambientales y ecología

Recursos hídricos

modelos logísticos

susceptibilidad a deslizamientos de tierra

Andes Centrales

deslizamientos de tierra inducidos por lluvias

variaciones temporales de susceptibilidad

artículo original

versión publicada

CC BY 4.0

CC BY 4.0

acceso abierto

acceso abierto

WOS:001071068700001

verde# dorado

Ciencias ambientales y ecología

Recursos hídricos